Frequently asked questions
Everything worth knowing about TML Picks, the tips, the pricing and the model. The service is for adults aged 18 and over.
What is TML Picks?
TML Picks is a subscription sports-analytics service. We analyse daily football and tennis fixtures with a statistical model and publish tips, ready-made slips and match analyses. We are not a bookmaker: you cannot place a bet with us and we never hold your money.
How are the tips produced?
For every match we compute an xG-based Poisson model for the expected goal distribution, blend it with the market probability implied by bookmaker odds, and factor in Elo ratings, form and injuries. The market carries the larger share of the weight, because the closing price is the best freely available forecast there is. The output is then calibrated per market against our measured historical hit rate, so the percentage we show means what it says.
Which sports and leagues do you cover?
Football: Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, plus the Championship, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Süper Lig, Belgian Pro League, Ekstraklasa, Allsvenskan, Eliteserien, Segunda, Serie B, Ligue 2, the Swiss and Czech top flights, the Hungarian NB I, and the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League. Tennis: ATP and WTA main-draw matches plus the larger challenger events.
Is there a free tip?
Yes. We publish one free, high-confidence tip every day, and you do not need an account to see it. The full daily slate, the slips and the Odds Radar are part of the subscription.
What does a subscription cost, and what plans are there?
Three plans: €22 weekly, €69 monthly and €139 quarterly, the last of which works out at about €46 a month, roughly a 33% saving. On the Hungarian site the same plans are 7,990, 24,990 and 49,990 forint. Every plan gives the same full access: all daily football and tennis tips, the top picks, the curated slips and the Odds Radar. Promotions run from time to time, so the pricing page always shows the current price.
How do I cancel?
From your account page, through the subscription management button, at any time. Cancelling stops the next renewal; access continues until the end of the period you have already paid for. You do not need to email us and there is no notice period.
Is there a guarantee or a refund if I have a losing month?
No. No tip and no slip guarantees a win, and we do not promise a guaranteed return: sports betting carries risk and you can lose money. What we provide is analysis and a numerical probability, not a certain outcome. The fee pays for the analysis, not for a result, so we do not refund the subscription because of a losing period.
How accurate are the tips?
The results page lists every past tip with its outcome, split by football and tennis, and the slip record is public too. We deliberately do not print a fixed number here: the rate moves by period and by market, and a static figure would quickly become misleading. The measured data lives on the public results page.
Do you edit tips after the fact?
No. Every tip is finalised and frozen before kick-off and is never changed afterwards. What the results page shows is exactly what went out before the match.
When do the daily tips appear?
Football analyses are produced by the overnight run and are typically ready by morning; the daily slips go out later in the morning. Tennis follows the tournament schedule, because draws and odds settle later there. Turn on notifications and we will tell you when the day's slate is ready.
What do the confidence level and the stake in units mean?
The confidence level is the model's estimated probability that the tip lands, calibrated against our measured historical hit rate. A unit is a fixed fraction of your own bankroll that you choose, commonly 1-2% of it. We express stakes in units so the recommendation makes sense at any bankroll size: a 5-unit slip means five times the stake of a 1-unit one.
Which bookmaker can I use the tips with?
Any of them. The odds shown next to a tip are an indicative market price taken from our own data sources. If your bookmaker offers a noticeably lower price, the value of the tip is lower too, so it pays to compare. Use a provider licensed in your own jurisdiction.
Who operates the service?
Hódi Gábor E.V., registered at 4400 Nyíregyháza, Ferenc krt. 22. 7/58., Hungary, tax number 48992729-1-35. The full contract terms are on the terms of service page and data handling is described in the privacy policy.
Is the service legal, and is there an age limit?
TML Picks provides sports analysis and statistical forecasting. We do not organise gambling and do not accept stakes, which is why the service operates legally. It is strictly for people aged 18 and over. Sports betting can be addictive: if you feel you are losing control, seek help from a gambling support service in your country.
Is there a mobile app?
There is no separate app, but the site installs as an app (PWA) on both iPhone and Android and then launches full-screen from an icon. Step-by-step instructions are on the install page. Once installed you can also opt in to push notifications for new tips.
How do I get in touch?
Write to info@tmlsportfogadas.com or use the feedback button on the site. The same address handles subscription and billing questions.